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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
Predicting the friture is almost always fraught with uncertainty. How- ever, Army force developers working to plan a force capable of meet- ing the challenges of the 2025 timeframe (the Future Force era) face more uncertainty than most. Today's world, especially in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war, exhibits a level of dynamism and change not seen during the comparatively static decades of the Cold War-times when the drivers of U.S. secu- rity policy were relatively fixed and their demands upon the Army easily identified. This study has attempted to help the Army deal with the task of long-term force planning by using the tool of alternative futures analysis. Rather than positing a single point estimate of the 2025 fli- ture and trying to defend it, we chose to help the Army bound the future by laying out a representative spectrum of different "future worlds" in the hope that they would illustrate the complete universe of future missions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
Predicting the friture is almost always fraught with uncertainty. How- ever, Army force developers working to plan a force capable of meet- ing the challenges of the 2025 timeframe (the Future Force era) face more uncertainty than most. Today's world, especially in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war, exhibits a level of dynamism and change not seen during the comparatively static decades of the Cold War-times when the drivers of U.S. secu- rity policy were relatively fixed and their demands upon the Army easily identified. This study has attempted to help the Army deal with the task of long-term force planning by using the tool of alternative futures analysis. Rather than positing a single point estimate of the 2025 fli- ture and trying to defend it, we chose to help the Army bound the future by laying out a representative spectrum of different "future worlds" in the hope that they would illustrate the complete universe of future missions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
Author: Steven Metz
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781463725013
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
A year ago the Chief of Staff of the Army initiated the Army After Next Project (AANP) as a means of stimulating constructive thinking about the Army's future throughout the service. AANP has quickly developed into a primary vehicle for long-range planning. Under the leadership of the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the AANP has conducted an ambitious program of studies, symposia and workshops, culminating in a Winter War Game and Senior Seminar held at Carlisle, January 27-February 6, 1997. In addition to supporting TRADOC's AANP through the world class simulation and gaming facilities of the Center for Strategic Leadership, the Army War College has begun a complementary research project, combining the talents of faculty and students. A key line of initial inquiry for us has been to forecast the nature of the future security environment in which the Army will operate. That is the task Dr. Steven Metz set for himself in this monograph. In the pages that follow he propounds "currents of change" that will determine the future and sketches a series of plausible future security systems. Each system is characterized by the forms of conflict that will dominate it, the major strategic issues the United States might face, and the resulting military implications. While Dr. Metz's analysis leads to observations certain to be controversial, he illustrates quite clearly the primacy that environmental context will have in shaping our national security outlook and military strategy. Thus, Dr. Metz's observations on trends and systems warrant careful consideration as national policymakers and the Army's leaders build the military force of the future.
Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1428982078
Category : Military planning
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
Author: David A. Ochmanek
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780833097422
Category : Military doctrine
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
This report presents results of one phase of a project called Future Combat Development Concepts. The project supports the Training and Doctrine Command's (TRADOC's) work toward understanding future combat development and doctrine issues. This particular report is intended to help TRADOC develop Army 21, a vision of the Army and an operational concept appropriate for 15 to 30 years in the future. The Army 21 effort entails the development of a set of plausible alternative worlds that could eventuate within that span of time. The results of this study are most relevant to those interested in future Army concepts and doctrine. Since Army 21 is an integral part of the Army Long-Range Planning System, the report will interest Army long-range planners. However, the methodologies used in this study are more general and should also be of interest to other long-range planners looking for an alternative to trend-based approaches to futures planning. Section 2 of this report describes the methodology the authors developed for Army 21 specifically and for long-range planning in general. It includes a description of the methodology and a comparison of that methodology with a more common approach to long-range planning that concentrates on trend extrapolation. Section 3 describes the implementation of the first step of the methodology: identification and analysis of the assumptions underlying AirLand Battle-Future (ALB-F). Section 4 describes the identification, by means of an innovative Delphi exercise, of plausible changes in the world in 25 to 30 years that would affect the Army and its operational concept. These steps are critical in the generation of alternative future scenarios that stress the ALB-F Umbrella Concept. Section 4 also explains how the assumptions and plausible changes are combined to generate the alternative future scenarios and describes the scenarios thus generated. Section 5 offers conclusions and observations. (5 tables).
Author: Brian Nichiporuk
Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society
ISBN: 9780833037442
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 138
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Book Description
What should the U.S. Army look like in 20 years? Using the tool of alternative futures analysis, this study attempts to help the Army with force planning for the 2025 era. It lays out a spectrum of different "future worlds" to illustrate the complete universe of future missions. Analyzing possible trends across five key areas (geopolitics, economics, demographics, technology, and environment), the study defines six alternative futures and postulates an appropriate "Army type" for each one.
Author: James A. Dewar
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780833012685
Category : Military doctrine
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
This report describes a long-range planning methodology developed for Army 21 - an Army planning exercise designed to envision how the Army will fight between 15 and 30 years in the future - and demonstrates a partial implementation of the methodology by generating a set of alternative futures. In applying the methodology to the AirLand Battle-Future (ALB-F) concept, the authors found that the scenarios generated can be properly used to do two things: think about actions that should be taken in current planning to begin preparing for the eventuation of any of the scenarios, and identify "signposts"--Events or trends that would suggest the world had taken an important turn toward one of the challenges to the ALB-F concept. The authors also found the methodology could be improved by developing a rudimentary theory of assumptions to guide their discovery and formulation. Finally, the authors found the ALB-F concept to be robust because it was difficult to come up with assumptions underlying it that might be violated; such a finding implies that doctrine writers will be challenged to develop the concept into a compelling guide to force structure development, training, etc.
Author: Michael Fitzsimmons
Publisher: Independently Published
ISBN: 9781077160125
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Scenario planning should be one of the Pentagon's most important tools for developing strategy for an uncertain future. However, the formalized joint scenario planning process to support strategy and force development-Support for Strategic Analysis-has faced many challenges over the past 2 decades, and has ultimately proven less influential than intended on strategic decision-making. Explaining why is the main purpose of this monograph. It argues that scenario analysis has been most effective in supporting capability and program development, while it has fallen short in shaping strategy and force structure. The reasons for this are numerous and are rooted in intrinsic, structural characteristics of decision-making in large organizations. The monograph concludes with several recommendations for rejuvenating scenario planning in the Pentagon.
