Transition Scenarios PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Transition Scenarios PDF full book. Access full book title Transition Scenarios by David P. Rapkin. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: David P. Rapkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022604050X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 282
Get Book
Book Description
China’s rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us? With Transition Scenarios, David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition—and the processes that might bring it about—remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson’s use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.
Author: David P. Rapkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022604050X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 282
Get Book
Book Description
China’s rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us? With Transition Scenarios, David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition—and the processes that might bring it about—remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson’s use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.
Author: D. V. Lyubimov
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9783718648672
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 84
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Peter J. Schmid
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387989853
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 578
Get Book
Book Description
A detailed look at some of the more modern issues of hydrodynamic stability, including transient growth, eigenvalue spectra, secondary instability. It presents analytical results and numerical simulations, linear and selected nonlinear stability methods. By including classical results as well as recent developments in the field of hydrodynamic stability and transition, the book can be used as a textbook for an introductory, graduate-level course in stability theory or for a special-topics fluids course. It is equally of value as a reference for researchers in the field of hydrodynamic stability theory or with an interest in recent developments in fluid dynamics. Stability theory has seen a rapid development over the past decade, this book includes such new developments as direct numerical simulations of transition to turbulence and linear analysis based on the initial-value problem.
Author: David Holmgren
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN: 1603582061
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 138
Get Book
Book Description
In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Author: Bernd Engel
Publisher: Cuvillier Verlag
ISBN: 3736961189
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 262
Get Book
Book Description
In the research project NEDS – Sustainable Energy Supply Lower Saxony, conceivable transition paths towards a power supply based on renewable energies in Lower Saxony by 2050 are developed and examined for their sustainability and feasibility. Both the different technical focal points and the joint development of methods and models represent important aspects of the project. A comprehensive method for the integrated development and evaluation of energy scenarios is developed and applied to Lower Saxony. As a basic framework, five future scenarios for the target year 2050 are developed. Based on the qualitative future scenarios and three chosen alternatives, quantitative assumptions are made for the simulation and evaluation. The simulation results of the system model form the basis for the system evaluation. Defined system states for the transition years are simulated and then compared using a multi-criteria decision analysis based on sustainability criteria. In dem Forschungsprojekt NEDS – Nachhaltige Energieversorgung Niedersachsen werden denkbare Transitionspfade hin zu einer auf erneuerbaren Energien basierenden Stromversorgung in Niedersachsen bis 2050 entwickelt und auf ihre Nachhaltigkeit und Umsetzbarkeit untersucht. Sowohl die unterschiedlichen fachlichen Schwerpunkte als auch die gemeinsame Entwicklung von Methodik und Modellen stellen wichtige Aspekte im Projekt dar. Es wird eine umfassende Methodik zur integrierten Entwicklung und Bewertung von Energieszenarien erarbeitet und auf Niedersachsen angewendet. Als Grundgerüst werden fünf Zukunftsszenarien für das Zieljahr 2050 entwickelt. Aus den qualitativen Zukunftsszenarien und drei ausgewählten Alternativen werden quantitative Annahmen für die Simulation und Bewertung erstellt. Die Ergebnisse der Simulationen des Systemmodells bilden die Grundlage für die Systembewertung. Definierte Systemzustände für die Transitionsjahre werden simuliert und anschließend mithilfe einer multikriteriellen Bewertungsmethode anhand von Nachhaltigkeitskriterien verglichen.
Author: Stephane Hallegatte
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
Get Book
Book Description
Bank stress tests of climate change risks are relatively new, but are rapidly proliferating. The IMF and World Bank staff collaborated to develop an experimental macro scenario stress testing approach to examine physical risks for banks by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model linked to global climate and a catastrophe risk model specifically for the Philippines. Our model shows that the impact of extremely rare typhoons on GDP could already be systemic and worsen substantially with climate change. However, bank capital declines only modestly unless the event is compounded with other disasters, partly thanks to the strength of Philippines’ banks and economy before the COVID crisis. However, more work is needed before drawing strong conclusions about the relevance of climate risk, as the model focused only on typhoons’ physical capital destructions and their macroeconomic-level transmissions to banks.
Author: Paul Ekins
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136542515
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 313
Get Book
Book Description
Hydrogen could be a significant fuel of the future, with the potential to make a major contribution to the resolution of pressing social and environmental problems such as carbon emissions, energy security and local air pollution. This book, based on four years of detailed research, subjects the promise and potential of hydrogen to searching, in-depth socio-economic analysis. It discusses the different technologies for the production, distribution, storage and use of hydrogen, and analyses the economics of these technologies and their current market prospects. It also describes various experiences with aspects of a hydrogen economy in two parts of the world - the UK and Canada - and then assesses the nature of different hydrogen futures that might develop depending on how the technology, economics, social acceptance and policy frameworks play out in different contexts. The book ends by setting out the policy drivers and levers which could stimulate a virtuous circle of research and development, innovation and investment that might ultimately generate a sustainable hydrogen economy. This is essential reading for economists, engineers, business leaders, investors, policy makers, researchers and students who are interested in the future of the energy system and the part that hydrogen might play in it.
Author: Werner von Lensa
Publisher: Forschungszentrum Jülich
ISBN: 3893365389
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 187
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Lukas Boer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513599372
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Get Book
Book Description
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Author: Geert Verbong
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136456627
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Get Book
Book Description
The Energy Transition, the inevitable shift away from cheap, centralized, largely fossil-based energy systems, is one of the core challenges of our time. This book provides a coherent and novel insight into the nature of this challenge and possible strategies to accelerate and guide such transitions. It brings together prominent European scholars and practitioners from the fields of energy transition research and governance to draw attention to the current complex dynamics in the energy domain, and offer elegant and provocative explanations for current crises and lock-ins. They identify multiple energy transition pathways that emerge and increasingly compete, and emphasize the need and possibilities for novel governance. By analysing the complexity of energy transition processes and the difficulties in shifting to sustainable pathways, this text questions the extent to which actually governing energy transitions is already reality, just an illusion, or a bare necessity.
