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Author: Matthew G. Gurgel
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423529941
Category : First strike (Nuclear strategy)
Languages : en
Pages : 103
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Book Description
This thesis assesses the potential for a specific type of accidental nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Known as inadvertent war, such a conflict would be the result of a mistaken attempt at preemption, the launching of a nuclear attack by one nation in the mistaken belief that the other was doing likewise or was about to do so. While nuclear weapons can ordinarily be expected to exert a sobering influence on decision-makers, an escalating spiral of military activity during a crisis may generate different situational imperatives. Inadvertent war becomes possible when decision- makers perceive that conflict is inevitable and that there is a significant advantage in striking first. Evidence suggests that there is good reason for concern about the threat of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia. The nuclear force structures adopted by India and Pakistan can be expected to exert a particularly strong influence on the potential for both of the necessary conditions for inadvertent war. The current arsenals of these countries, small and heavily dependant upon aircraft for weapons delivery, may invite preemption in the event that nuclear war appears imminent. If India and Pakistan increase their nuclear delivery capabilities by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the potential for inadvertent war will be even greater. In the context of a military confrontation in South Asia, ballistic missiles are likely to contribute both to perceptions of first-strike advantage and to reinforcing military alerts that can lead to the belief that nuclear war is inevitable.
Author: Matthew G. Gurgel
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423529941
Category : First strike (Nuclear strategy)
Languages : en
Pages : 103
Get Book
Book Description
This thesis assesses the potential for a specific type of accidental nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Known as inadvertent war, such a conflict would be the result of a mistaken attempt at preemption, the launching of a nuclear attack by one nation in the mistaken belief that the other was doing likewise or was about to do so. While nuclear weapons can ordinarily be expected to exert a sobering influence on decision-makers, an escalating spiral of military activity during a crisis may generate different situational imperatives. Inadvertent war becomes possible when decision- makers perceive that conflict is inevitable and that there is a significant advantage in striking first. Evidence suggests that there is good reason for concern about the threat of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia. The nuclear force structures adopted by India and Pakistan can be expected to exert a particularly strong influence on the potential for both of the necessary conditions for inadvertent war. The current arsenals of these countries, small and heavily dependant upon aircraft for weapons delivery, may invite preemption in the event that nuclear war appears imminent. If India and Pakistan increase their nuclear delivery capabilities by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the potential for inadvertent war will be even greater. In the context of a military confrontation in South Asia, ballistic missiles are likely to contribute both to perceptions of first-strike advantage and to reinforcing military alerts that can lead to the belief that nuclear war is inevitable.
Author: Stephen A. Smith
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423505808
Category : India
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out tinder the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions tinder which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.
Author: Saghir Iqbal
Publisher: Saghir Iqbal
ISBN: 1717040403
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
An impending nuclear holocaust is likely to happen, if the world community does not take action. A conflict that has been simmering for many years is beginning to spiral out of control. Two nuclear powers have an unresolved dispute that has increased tensions in the region. Both countries are purchasing and developing sophisticated state-of-the-art weapons that could unleash great terror and destruction on the populations of both countries – with also serious global ramifications. The world’s most dangerous flashpoint, has the highest chance of a nuclear war occurring – it is deemed by many to be more serious that the Cuban Missile Crisis and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. The dispute needs to be amicably resolved between both nations and confidence building measures need to be implemented.
Author: Rajesh Rajagopalan
Publisher: Viking
ISBN:
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
In May 1998 India tested a series of nuclear devices in Pokharan. Two weeks later Pakistan announced a matching series of its own tests. A year later, when the two countries had a bitter confrontation in Kargil, the worst fears of 'proliferation pessimists' appeared to be coming true. The alarm bells have never really stopped ringing since then. In Second Strike Rajesh Rajagopalan challenges much of the conventional wisdom on the perceived nuclear danger in the region and suggests that the nuclear situation in South Asia is far less dangerous, and much more stable, than it is generally given credit for. Presenting a threefold case, the author focuses on the impact of nuclear doctrines on stability, a hitherto neglected aspect of the nuclear debate, and argues that Indian and Pakistani doctrines reduce the pressures on the two nuclear forces. Next, he presents the view that the doctrines of the two countries lessen the likelihood of accidents and other dangers such as terrorists stealing nuclear weapons. - the crucial role played by political leaders - and contends that political leaders tighten control over nuclear weapons in critical situations.
Author: Bhumitra Chakma
Publisher: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN: 1409426262
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 278
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Book Description
An important and critical re-evaluation of South Asia's post-tests nuclear politics. Unlike other books, this volume emphasises the political dimension of South Asia's nuclear weapons, explains how the bombs are used as politico-strategic assets rather than pure battlefield weapons and how they are employed by India and Pakistan in an extremely complex and competitive South Asian strategic landscape.
Author: Michael Krepon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Nuclear disarmament
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
Expert Road Map for Reducing Nuclear Dangers in South Asia The advent of nuclear weapons has not made the Indian Subcontinent a safer or a more stable place. Pakistan, in fact, views its nuclear weapons as a great equalizer vis-Ã -vis India's superiority in conventional forces, something which facilitates its support to militancy in Kashmir. Crises over Kashmir have subsequently grown both more frequent and more intense. The two countries clashed in Kargil in 1999 under the nuclear shadow and again fully mobilized their forces during 2002. The sobering fact, however, is that there are no instances of a successful, limited war between nuclear states. The need for reducing the risks of nuclear conflagration in South Asia is therefore urgent and calls for cooperation, political will and wisdom on the parts of Indian and Pakistani leaders and people. Equally, it requires a clear understanding and implementation of measures that can reduce the risk of a nuclear war. In this book, a dozen experts from India, Pakistan and the US provide precisely such a road map
Author: Devin T. Hagerty
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262581615
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
Hagerty analyzes how India and Pakistan interacted in diplomatic and military crises before their 1998 nuclear tests. He presents detailed studies of the January 1987 Indo-Pakistani crisis, precipitated by India's Brasstacks military exercises, and the 1990 confrontation over Kashmir. Hagerty concludes that relations between India and Pakistan in recent years support the argument that nuclear proliferation does not necessarily destabilize international relations and may even reduce the risk of war.
Author: Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publisher: Manohar Publishers
ISBN: 9788173045691
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 118
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Book Description
This Book Examines The Prospects Of `Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Restraint Regime In South Asia` Which Would Minimize The Risks Of Accidental, Unauthorized, Or Inadvertent Use Of Indian And/Or Pakistani Nuclear Weapons. It Recommends Effective Barriers Against The Danger Of Loose Nukes And Facility-Related Problems. Furthermore, The Book Explains The Nuclear Perils In The South Asian Strategic Environment, Along With Possible Solutions For Viable Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Nuclear Restraint Regime In South Asia.
Author: Lowell Dittmer
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9780765614186
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 300
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Book Description
Nuclear testing and hostilities over Kashmir in 1999, marked a new turn in the enmity between India and Pakistan. This book outlines the strategic structure of the rivalry and the dynamic forces driving it, and investigates various possible solutions.
Author: Yogesh Joshi
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781626166165
Category : Deterrence (Strategy).
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
India's nuclear profile, doctrine, and practices have evolved rapidly since the country's nuclear breakout in 1998. However, the outside world's understanding of India's doctrinal debates, forward-looking strategy, and technical developments are still two decades behind the present. This book will fill that gap in our knowledge by focusing on the post-1998 evolution of Indian nuclear thought, its arsenal, the triangular rivalry with Pakistan and China, and New Delhi's nonproliferation policy approaches. Joshi and O'Donnell show how India's nuclear trajectory has evolved in response to domestic, regional, and global drivers. The book argues that doctrinal and posturing developments in India, China, and Pakistan are elevating inadvertent and accidental escalation risks. As nuclear South Asia continues to attract global concern, this book provides an indispensable and timely guide to its challenges and offers potential solutions to them. Based on primary-source research and interviews, this book will be important reading for scholars and students of India's international relations and security as well as for military, defense contractor, and policy audiences outside of India.
