Author: Dean Brooks
Publisher: FriesenPress
ISBN: 1039151884
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 897
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Book Description
A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Author: Dean Brooks
Publisher: FriesenPress
ISBN: 1039151892
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 897
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Book Description
A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Author: Scott O. Lilienfeld
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118661044
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debate and ground the discipline in solid science. Discusses the pointed challenges posed by critics to the field of psychological research, which have given pause to psychological researchers across a broad spectrum of sub-fields Argues that those conducting psychological research need to fundamentally change the way they think about data and results, in order to ensure that psychology has a firm basis in empirical science Places the recent challenges discussed into a broad historical and conceptual perspective, and considers their implications for the future of psychological methodology and research Challenges discussed include confirmation bias, the effects of grant pressure, false-positive findings, overestimating the efficacy of medications, and high correlations in functional brain imaging Chapters are authored by internationally recognized experts in their fields, and are written with a minimum of specialized terminology to ensure accessibility to students and lay readers
Author: Anu Bradford
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190088605
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; and the rise of Asian influence, the EU is seen as a declining power on the world stage. Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford argues the opposite in her important new book The Brussels Effect: the EU remains an influential superpower that shapes the world in its image. By promulgating regulations that shape the international business environment, elevating standards worldwide, and leading to a notable Europeanization of many important aspects of global commerce, the EU has managed to shape policy in areas such as data privacy, consumer health and safety, environmental protection, antitrust, and online hate speech. And in contrast to how superpowers wield their global influence, the Brussels Effect - a phrase first coined by Bradford in 2012- absolves the EU from playing a direct role in imposing standards, as market forces alone are often sufficient as multinational companies voluntarily extend the EU rule to govern their global operations. The Brussels Effect shows how the EU has acquired such power, why multinational companies use EU standards as global standards, and why the EU's role as the world's regulator is likely to outlive its gradual economic decline, extending the EU's influence long into the future.
Author: Jerald G. Bachman
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1135643881
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 322
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Book Description
This book is intended as a thoughtful extension to Bachman et al.'s well-received monograph Smoking, Drinking, and Drug Use in Young Adulthood. That volume showed that the new freedoms of young adulthood lead to increases in substance use, while the responsibilities of adulthood--marriage, pregnancy, parenthood--contribute to declines in substance use. The Decline of Substance Use in Young Adulthood examines how the changes in social and religious experiences and in attitudes toward substance use observed among young adults are related to changes in substance use, family transitions, living arrangements, college experience, and employment. The research uses a variety of analysis techniques and is based on the nationwide Monitoring the Future surveys of more than 38,000 young people followed from high school into adulthood. The research covers the last quarter of the 20th century, a period when drug use and views about drugs underwent many important changes. In spite of these shifts, the overall patterns of relationships reported in this book are impressive in their consistency across time and in their general similarity for men and women. Specific questions addressed include the following: *As young adults experience new freedoms and responsibilities, do their attitudes about drugs change? *Do their religious views and behaviors shift? *Do their new freedoms and responsibilities affect the amount of time they spend in social activities, including going to parties and bars? *And how are any of these changes linked to changes in cigarette use, alcohol use, marijuana use, and cocaine use?
Author: Abdel Majid Farid
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000622339
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 169
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Book Description
First published in 1986, The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues explores the fall in the economic value of Arab oil reserves in the 1980s. Some of the threats to Arab countries include depletion of oil resources, rise of alternative sources of energy, international policies designed to control oil prices and growing conflicts of interest between producing and consuming countries. The editors suggest that any decline in oil revenues would negatively affect the economic, political, social and psychological structure of Arab societies since they are yet to explore non-oil sources of wealth. Consequently, the editors stress on the importance of researching the desert, which covers 94% of Arab lands, as a potential source of wealth. Given the current global shift towards sustainable forms of energy, this book is a timely reminder of the economic and political implications of such a shift on Arab countries for students of political science, international relations, geography, and economics.
Author: Carlos Elías
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030129780
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 330
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Book Description
In this controversial essay, Carlos Elías addresses the worldwide phenomenon that is threatening the scientific and economic progress of Western countries. The rise and influence of magic and irrationality in the media, in social networks and at universities is a disturbing phenomenon: many Western students no longer want to pursue STEM (Science, Technologies, Engineering, and Math) careers. This lucid and well-written book addresses one of the key issues of public debate: the deteriorating state of science in Western countries and their governments, and its rise in Asian countries. The author compares two distinct models: the Spanish or Latin model, which closed the door on science with the Counter-Reformation, and that employed by a second group of countries where science was encouraged. Elías suggests that a similar development could now be taking place between Western countries (where the press, television and social science academics are becoming increasingly critical towards science) and Asia, where most prime ministers (and other politicians) are scientists or engineers. This book is intended for STEM educators (both at secondary schools and universities), scientists and academics interested in scientific culture in the era of fake news.
Author: Oswald Spengler
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780195066340
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 500
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Book Description
Spengler's work describes how we have entered into a centuries-long "world-historical" phase comparable to late antiquity, and his controversial ideas spark debate over the meaning of historiography.
Author: Jorge Alvarez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484333039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to these characteristics, particularly a declining firm productivity pay premium. Our results shed light on potential drivers of earnings inequality dynamics.
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporations, American
Languages : en
Pages : 324
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Book Description
