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Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513539310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic policies and fundamentals and visible gains in poverty reduction. However, like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. Lower metal prices and weaker demand from trading partners were a major drag on private investment and exports. On the domestic front, an unexpected drop in subnational public investment level and temporary supply disruptions in mining, fishing, and agriculture compounded external shocks. Real GDP is projected to expand at about 3.75 percent in 2015, contingent on the reversal of the supply shocks and policy stimulus of 2014. Growth is expected to rise in 2016–17.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513539310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 81
Get Book
Book Description
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic policies and fundamentals and visible gains in poverty reduction. However, like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. Lower metal prices and weaker demand from trading partners were a major drag on private investment and exports. On the domestic front, an unexpected drop in subnational public investment level and temporary supply disruptions in mining, fishing, and agriculture compounded external shocks. Real GDP is projected to expand at about 3.75 percent in 2015, contingent on the reversal of the supply shocks and policy stimulus of 2014. Growth is expected to rise in 2016–17.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151355669X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
KEY ISSUES Context: Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic fundamentals, strong policy frameworks, and visible gains in poverty reduction. Like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. External shocks were compounded by domestic supply disruptions and a drop in subnational public investment, and growth decelerated sharply. Headline inflation was slightly above the upper band of the central bank’s (BCRP) target range due to supply shocks, but expectations remained well anchored. The external current account deficit declined slightly despite weaker external conditions. Outlook and risks: Growth is expected to recover in 2015 and over the medium term, contingent on production at new mines approaching capacity, priority infrastructure projects advancing, and shocks to terms of trade fading. However, downside risks dominate. Externally, these include a surge in global financial volatility, further dollar appreciation, or lower commodity prices and external demand. Domestic downside risks include weaker investment, uncertainties surrounding 2016 Presidential elections, and persistent social conflicts. A faster unwinding of supply shocks or a more complete pass- through of lower food and fuel global prices constitute upside risks. Near-term policy mix: The policy mix is broadly adequate to support the recovery and maintain macroeconomic stability. The immediate priority is expediting the execution of public investment in line with government plans, while avoiding increases in non-priority current spending. Monetary policy should remain responsive to inflation expectations and external developments. Exchange rate flexibility should be the main line of defense against any additional external pressures. The timely use of macro-prudential tools and ongoing de-dollarization efforts should further solidify financial stability. Medium-term prospects: With the end of the commodity boom, a push to deepen structural reforms will be necessary to sustain potential growth and diversify the economy. Revenue losses would need to be offset to finance structural reforms, investment, and inclusion along a gradual fiscal consolidation path. Streamlining legal requirements and red tape is rightly a government reform priority and the ambitious education reform and inclusion polices should stay their course within the framework of fiscal discipline. Persevering with labor market reform remains important.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 127
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Book Description
Against the background of a strong economic performance over the last quarter of a century, Peru has been hit by multiple shocks in the last several years. Adequate policies and very strong policy frameworks have made the economy resilient. Following a steep decline in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic and a rapid recovery in 2021, growth slowed significantly in 2022 as the policy stimulus was withdrawn and external and financial conditions deteriorated. Recent political developments suggest that the new government needs to work across the political spectrum to create broader political consensus, reduce uncertainty, ease social tensions, and boost growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513574809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
Peru entered the pandemic with a sustained track record of implementing very strong policies amid very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks, but was hit hard by the pandemic, which took a heavy toll in terms of human lives and economic output. Tensions between executive and legislative powers continue to affect institutional cohesion, but new general elections will be held in April-June 2021. The IMF Executive Board approved a two-year FCL arrangement in the amount of US$11 billion (600 percent of quota) on May 28, 2020.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513526111
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Peru’s economic performance continues to be strong, however, external and domestic headwinds, including the fallout from Lava Jato corruption investigations, have reduced growth momentum and raised concerns about long-term growth prospects. Policy responses have been appropriate, but further reforms have been delayed by a political stalemate between the executive and legislative powers. After President Vizcarra dissolved Congress in September 2019, new parliamentary elections will be held in January 2020. The current slowdown in activity and heightened uncertainty justify policy stimulus. However, the fiscal stance is procyclical owing to higher-than-expected revenues and low execution of public investment. Against this background, monetary policy easing is particularly appropriate given the absence of inflationary pressures, while accelerated budget execution would mitigate the procyclical fiscal policy stance. In the medium term, additional fiscal space from tax revenues and effective expenditure control is needed to address priorities in infrastructure and social spending while a gradual transition to greater exchange rate flexibility would foster financial market development. In addition to infrastructure investment, key reforms are needed to improve governance and fight corruption, boost competitiveness, and reduce informality.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 93
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Book Description
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498368433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru has successfully navigated the commodity cycle and the 2008–09 global financial crisis, and still leads growth among large Latin American economies. Following a sharp and unexpected drop in 2014, growth picked up in 2015, reaching 3.3 percent largely owing to higher metals production and fishing, and a partial recovery in services and commerce. Peru is now positioned to grow faster in the next two years, as mining production reaches full capacity and large infrastructure projects advance. Inflation is expected to decline. Risks to the outlook are balanced, and downside risks are mostly on the external side.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484369203
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
Peru has been one of the top performers in Latin America since the turn of the century: robust growth has helped close the income gap with the largest regional economies and reduce poverty significantly. Last year, however, growth was subpar and the poverty ratio increased. While high commodity prices are an important tailwind, the economy is facing domestic headwinds. The Odebrecht case led to the resignation of President Kuczynski, and the new cabinet has moved quickly to implement various measures and request special legislative powers from Congress. The authorities have also been facing the challenge of rebuilding infrastructure following the extreme weather caused by El Niño in 2017.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1452769958
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
This paper focuses on Peru’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Progress was made on structural reforms, but key reforms remain to be implemented, including the completion of tax reform and implementation of a fiscally neutral decentralization. Both are crucial to fiscal sustainability over the medium term but face considerable risks in the current political environment. The 2003 program aims at maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies, including moderate fiscal adjustment, and pressing ahead with structural reforms. Moderate fiscal adjustment is also needed to give credibility to the authorities' medium-term deficit target.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513550071
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the fourth quarter of 2014, the economy of Ecuador has been hit by external shocks and is slowing down. The sharp decline in the international oil price, by about half for the Ecuadorian mix, significantly undercut oil revenues. In addition, competitiveness is being eroded by the real appreciation of the exchange rate. In the face of the economic slowdown, bank liquidity conditions have tightened, credit growth has slowed, and nonperforming loans have risen. Despite the slowdown, inflation is picking up. Owing to the shocks and expected adjustment, the economy is projected to contract somewhat in 2015, while the external position deteriorates.
