Focus on Making Predictions

Focus on Making Predictions PDF Author: Curriculum Associates Staff
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780760939048
Category : Readers (Elementary)
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description

Focus on Making Predictions

Focus on Making Predictions PDF Author: Curriculum Associates Staff
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780760939048
Category : Readers (Elementary)
Languages : en
Pages :

Get Book

Book Description


Duck on a Bike

Duck on a Bike PDF Author: David Shannon
Publisher: Scholastic Inc.
ISBN: 0545530032
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Book Description
In this off-beat book perfect for reading aloud, a Caldecott Honor winner shares the story of a duck who rides a bike with hilarious results. One day down on the farm, Duck got a wild idea. “I bet I could ride a bike,” he thought. He waddled over to where the boy parked his bike, climbed on, and began to ride. At first, he rode slowly and he wobbled a lot, but it was fun! Duck rode past Cow and waved to her. “Hello, Cow!” said Duck. “Moo,” said Cow. But what she thought was, “A duck on a bike? That’s the silliest thing I’ve ever seen!” And so, Duck rides past Sheep, Horse, and all the other barnyard animals. Suddenly, a group of kids ride by on their bikes and run into the farmhouse, leaving the bikes outside. Now ALL the animals can ride bikes, just like Duck! Praise for Duck on a Bike “Shannon serves up a sunny blend of humor and action in this delightful tale of a Duck who spies a red bicycle one day and gets “a wild idea” . . . Add to all this the abundant opportunity for youngsters to chime in with barnyard responses (“M-o-o-o”; “Cluck! Cluck!”), and the result is one swell read-aloud, packed with freewheeling fun.” —Publishers Weekly “Grab your funny bone—Shannon . . . rides again! . . . A “quackerjack” of a terrific escapade.” —Kirkus Reviews

Superforecasting

Superforecasting PDF Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352

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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Prediction, Learning, and Games

Prediction, Learning, and Games PDF Author: Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113945482X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 4

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Book Description
This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

Focus on Making Predictions

Focus on Making Predictions PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781741019261
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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Book Description


What Do You Do With a Tail Like This?

What Do You Do With a Tail Like This? PDF Author: Steve Jenkins
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN: 0547488920
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Book Description
A nose for digging? Ears for seeing? Eyes that squirt blood? Explore the many amazing things animals can do with their ears, eyes, mouths, noses, feet, and tails in this interactive guessing book, beautifully illustrated in cut-paper collage, which was awarded a Caldecott Honor. This title has been selected as a Common Core Text Exemplar (Grades K-1, Read Aloud Informational Text).

Thank You, Mr. Falker

Thank You, Mr. Falker PDF Author: Patricia Polacco
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0399257624
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Book Description
The real-life, classic story of a dyslexic girl and the teacher who would not let her fail. A perfect gift for teachers and for reading students of any age. Patricia Polacco is now one of America's most loved children's book creators, but once upon a time, she was a little girl named Trisha starting school. Trisha could paint and draw beautifully, but when she looked at words on a page, all she could see was jumble. It took a very special teacher to recognize little Trisha's dyslexia: Mr. Falker, who encouraged her to overcome her reading disability. Patricia Polacco will never forget him, and neither will we. This inspiring story is available in a deluxe slipcased edition, complete with a personal letter to readers from Patricia Polacco herself. Thank You, Mr. Falker will make a beautiful gift for the special child who needs encouragement&150or any special teacher who has made a difference in the child's life.

Enemy Pie (Reading Rainbow Book, Children S Book about Kindness, Kids Books about Learning)

Enemy Pie (Reading Rainbow Book, Children S Book about Kindness, Kids Books about Learning) PDF Author: Derek Munson
Publisher: Chronicle Books
ISBN: 9780811827782
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
A Reading Rainbow book for your child Recommend by experts for children who are reading independently and transitioning to longer books. Teach kindness, courtesy, respect, and friendship: It was the perfect summer. That is, until Jeremy Ross moved into the house down the street and became neighborhood enemy number one. Luckily Dad had a surefire way to get rid of enemies: Enemy Pie. But part of the secret recipe is spending an entire day playing with the enemy! In this funny yet endearing story one little boy learns an effective recipe for turning a best enemy into a best friend. Accompanied by charming illustrations, Enemy Pie serves up a sweet lesson in the difficulties and ultimate rewards of making new friends. The perfect book for kids learning how to make friends or deal with conflict Ideal as a read aloud book for families or elementary schools Created by Derek Munson who has directly shared his children's stories with over 100,000 kids across the globe Fans of Last Stop on Market Street, Have You Filled a Bucket Today, and First Day Jitters will love this Reading Rainbow classic, Enemy Pie. Recommend by experts for children who are reading independently and transitioning to longer books and perfect for the following reading categories: Elementary School Chapter Books Family Read Aloud Books Books for Kids Ages 5-9 Children's Books for Grades 3-5

The Content Trap

The Content Trap PDF Author: Bharat Anand
Publisher: Random House Group
ISBN: 0812995384
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 464

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Book Description
“My favorite book of the year.”—Doug McMillon, CEO, Wal-Mart Stores Harvard Business School Professor of Strategy Bharat Anand presents an incisive new approach to digital transformation that favors fostering connectivity over focusing exclusively on content. NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY BLOOMBERG Companies everywhere face two major challenges today: getting noticed and getting paid. To confront these obstacles, Bharat Anand examines a range of businesses around the world, from The New York Times to The Economist, from Chinese Internet giant Tencent to Scandinavian digital trailblazer Schibsted, and from talent management to the future of education. Drawing on these stories and on the latest research in economics, strategy, and marketing, this refreshingly engaging book reveals important lessons, smashes celebrated myths, and reorients strategy. Success for flourishing companies comes not from making the best content but from recognizing how content enables customers’ connectivity; it comes not from protecting the value of content at all costs but from unearthing related opportunities close by; and it comes not from mimicking competitors’ best practices but from seeing choices as part of a connected whole. Digital change means that everyone today can reach and interact with others directly: We are all in the content business. But that comes with risks that Bharat Anand teaches us how to recognize and navigate. Filled with conversations with key players and in-depth dispatches from the front lines of digital change, The Content Trap is an essential new playbook for navigating the turbulent waters in which we find ourselves. Praise for The Content Trap “A masterful and thought-provoking book that has reshaped my understanding of content in the digital landscape.”—Ariel Emanuel, co-CEO, WME | IMG “The Content Trap is a book filled with stories of businesses, from music companies to magazine publishers, that missed connections and could never escape the narrow views that had brought them past success. But it is also filled with stories of those who made strategic choices to strengthen the links between content and returns in their new master plans. . . . The book is a call to clear thinking and reassessing why things are the way they are.”—The Wall Street Journal

Those Shoes

Those Shoes PDF Author: Maribeth Boelts
Publisher: Candlewick Press
ISBN: 0763691488
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
But all the kids are wearing them! Any child who has ever craved something out of reach will relate to this warm, refreshingly realistic story. Features an audio read-along. "I have dreams about those shoes. Black high-tops. Two white stripes." All Jeremy wants is a pair of those shoes, the ones everyone at school seems to be wearing. But Jeremy’s grandma tells him they don’t have room for "want," just "need," and what Jeremy needs are new boots for winter. When Jeremy’s shoes fall apart at school, and the guidance counselor gives him a hand-me-down pair, the boy is more determined than ever to have those shoes, even a thrift-shop pair that are much too small. But sore feet aren’t much fun, and Jeremy comes to realize that the things he has -- warm boots, a loving grandma, and the chance to help a friend -- are worth more than the things he wants.