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Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 113561461X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 472
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Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 113561461X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 472
Get Book
Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1135614628
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 450
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Book Description
An overview of the information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation, this text shows how to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information and critically evaluate the likelihood of claims.
Author: Timothy T. Rogers
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262182393
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 446
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Book Description
A mechanistic theory of the representation and use of semantic knowledge that uses distributed connectionist networks as a starting point for a psychological theory of semantic cognition.
Author: Bertram F. Malle
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262632676
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 444
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Book Description
Highlights the roles of intention and intentionality in social cognition.
Author: Michael Wheeler
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262232401
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 372
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Book Description
An argument for a non-Cartesian philosophical foundation for cognitive science that combines elements of Heideggerian phenomenology, a dynamical systems approach to cognition, and insights from artificial intelligence-related robotics.
Author: Don Tucker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199838526
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 289
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Book Description
Scientific research shows how experience shapes the organization of the human brain through mechanisms of neural plasticity. To understand this plasticity, it is important to examine the developmental mechanisms through which the brain grows from a single cell to achieve the complex architecture of the fully developed human brain. Cognition and Neural Development examines the embryonic development of the brain to appreciate the dimensions of developmental momentum that shape the neural and psychological development of our lives. It provides new insights into the evolutionary-developmental basis of human psychological function.
Author: Alvin I. Goldman
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674258969
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
Against the traditional view, Alvin Goldman argues that logic, probability theory, and linguistic analysis cannot by themselves delineate principles of rationality or justified belief. The mind's operations must be taken into account.
Author: Allen Newell
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674921016
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 580
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Book Description
Newell introduces Soar, an architecture for general cognition. A pioneer system in AI, Soar is the first problem-solver to create its own subgoals and learn continuously from its own experience. Its ability to operate within the real-time constraints of intelligent behavior illustrates important characteristics of human cognition.
Author: Jean Lave
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521357340
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
Most previous research on human cognition has focused on problem-solving, and has confined its investigations to the laboratory. As a result, it has been difficult to account for complex mental processes and their place in culture and history. In this startling - indeed, disco in forting - study, Jean Lave moves the analysis of one particular form of cognitive activity, - arithmetic problem-solving - out of the laboratory into the domain of everyday life. In so doing, she shows how mathematics in the 'real world', like all thinking, is shaped by the dynamic encounter between the culturally endowed mind and its total context, a subtle interaction that shapes 1) Both tile human subject and the world within which it acts. The study is focused on mundane daily, activities, such as grocery shopping for 'best buys' in the supermarket, dieting, and so on. Innovative in its method, fascinating in its findings, the research is above all significant in its theoretical contributions. Have offers a cogent critique of conventional cognitive theory, turning for an alternative to recent social theory, and weaving a compelling synthesis from elements of culture theory, theories of practice, and Marxist discourse. The result is a new way of understanding human thought processes, a vision of cognition as the dialectic between persons-acting, and the settings in which their activity is constituted. The book will appeal to anthropologists, for its novel theory of the relation of cognition to culture and context; to cognitive scientists and educational theorists; and to the 'plain folks' who form its subject, and who will recognize themselves in it, a rare accomplishment in the modern social sciences.
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN: 1429969350
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 511
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Book Description
Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
