China’s Demography and its Implications PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download China’s Demography and its Implications PDF full book. Access full book title China’s Demography and its Implications by Mr.Il Houng Lee. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Il Houng Lee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363361
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Get Book
Book Description
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China’s demographics should have induced a negative current account in the 2000s and a positive one in the 2010s given the rising share of prime savers, only turning negative around 2045. The opposite is true for the United States and Western Europe. The observed divergence in current account outcomes from the simulated path appears to have been partly policy induced. Over the next couple of decades, individual countries’ convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China’s demography, including the growth model, the pension system, the labor market, and the public finances are also briefly reviewed.
Author: Mr.Il Houng Lee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363361
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Get Book
Book Description
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China’s demographics should have induced a negative current account in the 2000s and a positive one in the 2010s given the rising share of prime savers, only turning negative around 2045. The opposite is true for the United States and Western Europe. The observed divergence in current account outcomes from the simulated path appears to have been partly policy induced. Over the next couple of decades, individual countries’ convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China’s demography, including the growth model, the pension system, the labor market, and the public finances are also briefly reviewed.
Author: Isabelle Attané
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9401789878
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Get Book
Book Description
Based on China’s recently released 2010 population census data, this edited volume analyses the most recent demographic trends in China, in the context of significant social and economic upheavals. The editor and the expert contributors describe the main features of China’s demography, and focus on the details of this latest phase of its demographic transition. The book explores such striking characteristics of China’s demography as the changing age and sex population structure; recent trends in marriage and divorce; fertility trends with a focus on sex imbalance at birth; the demography of the ethnic minorities and recent mortality trends by sex. Analysing China's Population: Social Change in a New Demographic Era examines and assesses the impact of changes that in the coming decades will be crucial for individuals, and the larger society and economy of the nation.
Author: Zhongwei Zhao
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191538434
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 364
Get Book
Book Description
With the largest population in the world, China has experienced significant demographic, social, and economic changes in recent decades. Extraordinary demographic changes took place in China in the second half of the twentieth century having wide-ranging consequences. This book, written by a group of leading experts, examines these profound changes in an effort to understand their long term impact and provide an up-to-date account of China's demographic reality. The volume provides a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of a wide range of issues such as China's unprecedented family planning program, the impact of falling birth rates coupled with increasing life expectancy, changes in marriage patterns, and increasing rural-urban migration. Anyone who is interested in China and its recent demographic changes will benefit from the rich materials and thorough analysis provided in this book.
Author: Judith Banister
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Dudley L. Poston Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489912312
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 750
Get Book
Book Description
Student~ interested in world populations and demography inevitably need to know China. As the most populous country of the world, China occupies a unique position in the world population system. How its population is shaped by the intricate interplays among factors such as its political ideology and institutions, economic reality, government policies, sociocultural traditions, and ethnic divergence represents at once a fascinating and challenging arena for investigatIon and analysis. Yet, for much of the 20th century, while population studies have developed into a mature science, precise information and sophisticated analysis about the Chinese population had largely remained either lacking or inaccessible, first because of the absence of systematic databases due to almost uninterrupted strife and wars, and later because the society was closed to the outside observers for about three decades since 1949. Since the end of the Cultural Revolution, things have dramatically changed. China has embarked on an ambitious reform program where modernization became the utmost goal of societal mobilization. China could no longer afford to rely on imprecise census or survey information for population-related studies and policy planning, nor to remaining closed to the outside world. Both the gathering of more precise information and access to such information have dramatically increased in the 1980s. Systematic observations, analyses and reporting about the Chinese population have surfaced in the population literature around the globe.
Author: Mr.Kevin C. Cheng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451844824
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Get Book
Book Description
This study assesses the economic implications of China's changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will become less productive. Consequently, if international capital mobility is high in China, a low fertility rate implies more future capital outflows. But if capital is less mobile, low fertility today lowers the domestic return to capital and raises the domestic return to labor. In addition, the paper finds no significant link between demographic structures and per capita income growth.
Author: Fang Cai
Publisher: BRILL
ISBN: 9004180575
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Get Book
Book Description
This yearbook is a collection of important articles by demographers and economists from CASS and other top research and policy institutes in China. Several of the articles in this volume are based on major labor and population surveys carried out in recent years.
Author: Judith Banister
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Chiung-Fang Chang
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134349769
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 208
Get Book
Book Description
China's one-child population policy, first initiated in 1979, has had an enormous effect on the country’s development. By reducing its fertility in the past two decades to less than two children per woman, and developing a family planning program focused heavily on sterilization and abortion, China has undergone a significant transition in status to a demographically developed country. Bringing together contributions from leading academics, this book looks at the impact of the government's strict control over planning and population growth on the family, the wider society and the country's demography. The contributors examine developments such as family planning policy and contraceptive use, biological and social determinants of fertility, patterns of family and marriage and China's future population trends. As such it will be essential reading for academics, researchers, policy makers and government officials with an interest in China’s population policy.
Author: Susan Greenhalgh
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 9780804748803
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 420
Get Book
Book Description
'Governing China's Population' tells the story of political and cultural shifts, from the perspectives of both regime and society.
